Human History: Waves of Epidemics

In recent days I have often heard people saying “We are in the state of war, the war against the virus.” The current outbreak of deadly coronavirus has brought the world in pause. The world has come to a screeching halt. Investors all around the world have been worried about the collapsing stock market, airlines are cutting flights due to travel bans, the cruise industry is in crisis. Before the current outbreak, In 2014-16, the world had witnessed Ebola virus disease (EVD), formerly known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever, which is rare but severe and often causes fatal illness in humans. In 2018-19 again the outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo with few cases were reported.

If we go back checking the history of the epidemic we will find the death toll much higher than the current outbreak, which is mostly because of the current medical advances.

• The Black Death - The Invention of Quarantine hit Europe in 1347, claimed nearly 200 million lives in just four years.
• Flu Pandemic in the year 1968, also known as “the Hong Kong Flu.” The 1968 pandemic resulting in the deaths of more than a million people, including approximately 15% of the Hong Kong population at the time.
• The Scarlet Fever in 1858, England experienced its biggest scarlet fever epidemic, the bacterial infection that occurred after strep throat. During the epidemic, 95% of people who caught the virus were children.
• The Spanish Flu in 1918-20, which pushed some native communities to the brink of extinction. The flu infected an ~500 million people worldwide (about one-third of the planet's population) and killed approximately 50 million victims. The flu was first observed in Europe, the US, and later in the year 1957 in some parts of Asia cause nearly 70,000 deaths before a vaccine became available.
• In 2003, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), was identified after several months of cases. The syndrome started in China from bats, then to cats and then to humans, followed by 26 other countries, infecting 8,096 people, with 774 deaths. And many more such as Whooping cough (2010, 2014), Asian Flu (1957-58), H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic (2009-10), Zika Virus epidemic (2015-present day). But in the past, there wasn't the same kind of speed of communication about the movement of disease. The news about disease spread traveled more slowly which led to delay response in precautionary measures.

Global readiness for emerging infections with pandemic potential has improved by learning from past human history. But still, the global health communities have largely failed to take proactive measures in handling the outbreaks so far. Despite the advanced technological capacity for epidemic preparedness and response, we lack the economic sustainability and proactive strategy to address the outbreak. Considering the present, the emerging infections have now a better platform to spread, because of the number of factors such as increasing population, travel, urbanization, and climate change. These factors tend to favor the emergence, evolution, and spread of new pathogens. The virus now spread more vastly and before the alarm bell rings, the outbreak becomes critical. This is what happened with the Covid-19 pandemic. The most noticeable things to notice so far is how little countries did to prepare for it, despite watching it develop in China for months.

The outbreak may be hard to predict in advance, but the threat that the pathogens would pose to the world with underdeveloped health systems is not. The horrors of World War II stimulated the global leaders to form institutions like the World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF to promote economic development and confront humanitarian crises. We need active investment in health-care systems, and a structural international architecture to prevent, detect, and respond to future outbreaks and prepare the world for threats like COVID-19.

As I write, I have no clue what the ultimate effects of the coronavirus will be in the human history, but I hope that it will be like those of other epidemics which was stopped only by heroic communal efforts. In such time of crisis all we need to remember is that humanity had suffered much more worst and have always come out of it fighting courageously. This too shall pass, all we need to do is to stand strong and together (not literally, please maintain distance :) )